Why We Will Soon Miss The Cold War- John Mearsheimer
Untamed anarchy is a prime cause of armed conflict
The prospect of major crises and wars in Europe is likely to increase dramatically now that the Cold War is receding through history
Distribution and character of military power among states are the root causes of war and peace.
The peace in Europe since 1945 is due to:
1. The bipolar distribution of military power on the continent
2. The rough military equality between the polar powers the US and USSR
3. The ritualistically deplored fact that each of these superpowers is armed with a large nuclear arsenal
The new Europe will involve multi-polar distribution of power which was plagued with war from the founding of the European State system
Post-war era more peaceful due to the multi-polar distribution of power in Europe and the imbalance of strength that often developed among the great powers as they jostled for supremacy or advantage
A bipolar system is more peaceful because they demand allegiance from minor powers which are secure from each other as well as from the attack by the rival great power
Deterrence is difficult to maintain in a multi-polar state system because when power asymmetries develop, the strong become hard to deter. A major power might simply bully a weaker power in a one on one encounter which is unknown in a bipolar state. The resolve of opposing states and the size and strength of opposing coalitions are hard to calculate because the shape of international order to remain in flux. The aggressors can coerce others by bluffing war.
The size of the gap in military power between two leading states in the system is a key determinant of stability. Small gaps foster peace, large gaps promote war.
Nuclear weapons are a powerful force for peace. States that possess nuclear deterrents can stand up to one another
The single greatest domestic threat to peace is hypernationalism
Bipolarity, an equal balance of military power and nukes, are the key to elements for the long peace.
Without nukes, Europe would have crisis, tension, and possibly war. USSR and unified Germany would be the most powerful states. Europe would be disturbed by hypernationalism.
A scenario in which current ownership continues without proliferation seems very unlikely. The Germans will eventually look to nuclear weapons as the surest means of security.
The most probable scenario is further nuclear proliferation in Europe. Well-managed proliferation could help bolster peace. By increasing the number of fingers on the nuclear trigger, proliferation would increase the risk that nuclear weapons would be fired by accident or captured by terrorists or used by madmen
The best time for nuclear proliferation to occur would be during a time of relative international calm
Obsolescence of war theory posits that modern conventional war had become do deadly by 1945 as to be unthinkable as an instrument of state craft. The fact that WWII occurred casts doubts on this theory. The key flaw is the assumption that all conventional wars will be long and bloody wars of attrition.
There is no systematic evidence that Europeans believe war is obsolete.
Prosperity will make for peace (unified European Market). This scenario is based on economic liberalism which assumes that states are primarily motivated by the desire to achieve prosperity and that leaders place the material welfare of their publics above all other considerations including security. Stability flows from creation of a liberal economic order
A liberal economic order requires significant political cooperation to make states richer. It fosters economic interdependence. When interdependence is high, there is less temptation to cheat or behave aggressively toward other states because all states can retaliate economically.
This theory has one grave flaw: states operate in both an international political and international economic environment and the former dominates the latter when the two systems come into conflict
When security is scarce, states become more concerned with relative than absolute gains
In times of crisis or war, states that depend on others for economic critical supplies will fear cutoff or blackmail. They may respond by trying to seize the source of supply by force of arms
The cold war was the prime cause of cooperation among western democracies and the main reason intra-EC relations have flourished
Without a common soviet threat or an American night watchman, western European states will look upon one another with abiding suspicion
War is avoided under the peace-loving democracies theory because liberal democracies simply do not fight one another. In a democracy, the citizens are more hesitant to start trouble because it is they who must pay the price. Citizens of a liberal democracy respect popular democratic rights and democratic governments are viewed as or legitimate than others
The west has an interest in maintaining the cold war order and has an interest in continuing the cold war confrontation
The fate of the cold war is mainly in the hands of the Soviet Union
How to maintain peace in a multi-polar Europe:
1) US should encourage the limited and carefully managed proliferation of nuclear weapons in Europe.
2) Britain and the US and continental state will have to counter any emerging aggressor actively and efficiently in order to offset the hanging up and bullying that are sure to arise in post-cold war Europe. Both states must maintain military forces that can be deployed against continental states that threaten to start a war.
3) A concerted effort should be made to keep hypernationalism at bay. States that teach a dishonestly self-exculpating or self-glorifying history should be publicly (punished?) and sanctioned.
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