Alliances: Balancing and Bandwagoning Summary by Stephen M. Walt
When faced with a security threat, states will join forces with each other to contain the threat (BALANCING) or join forces with the threat, mainly to increase their own power (BANDWAGONING).Balance of Power Theory- protection against states with superior resources that could pose a threat
Why do states choose to balance?
- to contain the threat before it becomes too powerful
- to increase the new member's influence within the alliance
It's safer to join with less dominant powers than the dominant powers because the influence will be greater.
Joining the weaker side should be the preferred choice.
Why do states choose to bandwagon?
- balancing is the alliance with the weaker side-- bandwagoning is the alliance with the stronger side. States tend to form an alliance with or against the foreign power that poses the greatest threat.
Historically, states tend to bandwagon more than balance. It is used to justify international involvements or increased military budgets. But balancing is the dominant theory in international politics.
Consequences of Balancing and Bandwagoning
- In balancing, credibility is less important-- the fear of allies defecting will decline.
- In balancing, aggression is not common because those who ponder it will expect retaliation.
- In bandwagoning, there is more of a competitive state. The decline of one side results in the rise of the other.
If leaders balance in a bandwagoning world, their allies may be more inclined to defect because of their perceived weakness.
If leaders bandwagon in a balancing world, they can encourage others to resist and oppose more aggressively.
When should Balancing or Bandwagoning be used?
Balancing should be used for uncertainties-- states mistrust one another and cannot be completely sure what the other will do.
It is safer to balance against potential threats rather than go on thinking that state will remain peaceful with you.
The weaker the state, the more likely it is to bandwagon because weak states add little strength and strong states can turn a losing state into a winning one. This could be rewarding for the weak state.
Weak states will likely balance when threatened by states with similar capabilities,
States will bandwagon when there are no allies available to balance with.
Although strong neighbors of strong states are likely to balance, small and weak neighbors of the great powers may be more inclined to bandwagon.
States are more likely to balance in peacetime or in the early stages of a war. As the outcome becomes certain, allies will be tempted to defect.
During peacetime, the winning side is likely to dismantle.
0 comments: